The health crisis and the lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19 have had a severe impact on Dominican foreign trade, according to Foreign Trade Panorama No. 8 of the Dominican Observatory of International Trade (ODCI).

According to this entity, while the average monthly export value between January and March was 837 million, in April and May it fell to 601 million, a reduction of 281 million pesos. The decline was observed in both domestic and free trade zone exports.

The document indicates that imports also decreased, falling from nearly $1.56 billion per month between January and March to $1.157 billion, a drop of 261% in 3Q. Imports of consumer goods fell by 251% in 3Q, raw materials by 211% in 3Q, and capital goods by 361% in 3Q. Oil imports declined by 431% in 3Q due to the partial quarantine and lower international prices.

As a result of a larger decline in the value of imports than exports, the ODCI indicated that the trade balance narrowed from an average monthly deficit of $723 million between January and March to $555 million in April and May.

For this entity, the evolution of the country's foreign trade in the coming months is uncertain because the increase in the number of infections could significantly delay the reopening process. However, it indicates that if the reopening progresses in the immediate future, trade flows are expected to partially recover.

The entity projects that in 2020 exports will decrease by nearly $1.4 billion compared to 2019, that imports will fall by $2.4 billion, and that the trade balance will decrease by about $1 billion.

For its part, according to the document, tourism revenue could reach just over $2.3 billion in 2020, nearly $4.8 billion less than in 2019. This represents a drastic drop in foreign exchange earnings and a serious challenge for the recovery of growth and the maintenance of macroeconomic stability.

The publication also provides a summary of the interventions made by representatives of foreign currency-generating sectors during the webinar "After COVID-19: Recovering Exports and Foreign Currency Generation," organized by the Santo Domingo Institute of Technology (INTEC) and the ODCI (National Institute of Statistics and Census) in June. Representatives from the tourism, free trade zones, national exporting companies, and foreign investment firms, as well as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, participated in the webinar.

The participants agreed that the recovery will not be rapid and depends heavily on international recovery. However, they emphasized that it could be accelerated if the work and collaboration between the government and the private sector are intensified in defining and adopting effective health protocols in each sector, actively promoting international trade and exploiting the gaps that are opening up changes in the international context, facilitating trade, digitizing activities in the public and private sectors, and continuously improving the business climate.